MathCamp98 Class 2

Last time

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Introduced notation. Summation, exponentiation
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Discussed exponents, factorial and logs

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Recap example - the translog cost function. A simple cost model is that costs are driven by a driver (D):

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Example: D = total labor hours. If tex2html_wrap_inline257 what does this mean?

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Today's example - the growth of money.


Today's class

Compound interest.
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Money is deposited.
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Earns interest at stated interval (i.e. quarterly)
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If the added interest itself earns interest, then it's compounded
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Original amount is called the principal.
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Principal + interest = compound amount.
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Interval between payments is the interest period.

Example. Take $1,000 and compound it annually at 5%.

Call the principal tex2html_wrap_inline259 , the amount of money you have at time zero.

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In general

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where r is the interest rate per period and t is the number of compoundings.

In the example interest was compounded once per year. One can compound more frequently. What difference does it make? How do we set it up?

If the annual interest rate is r and it is compounded m times in a year then the rate per period is tex2html_wrap_inline283 .

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Example, if the annual rate is 5% and this is compounded quarterly then the rate per quarter is tex2html_wrap_inline285 .

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Conclusion: you do a little bit better if it is more frequently compounded, but it reaches a limit fast.

In general: have an annual rate r compounded m times a year. The rate per period is tex2html_wrap_inline283 . How much do you have at the end of t years?

How many compoundings total? m times a year for t years makes tex2html_wrap_inline305 compoundings. Rate per period is tex2html_wrap_inline283 so the formula gives

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Now the calculus part: let m get large. That is compound more and more frequently.

Consider the limit:

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Answer:

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So that the number e comes in naturally as a limit in continuous compounding.

Aside: where does this limit come from?

Assume the limit exists, and call it L, then:

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So

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If we are allowed ...

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Now, log of a product is the sum of the logs ...

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Use log rules:

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But as m gets large, so tex2html_wrap_inline283 gets really small, so can use the log approximation tex2html_wrap_inline315 , to get

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Cancel to get

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Now exp both sides to get

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Examples: from the old exams.

How long does it take a principal amount to double if the interest rate is tex2html_wrap_inline317 ?

Principal is tex2html_wrap_inline259 .

Principal has doubled when amount at time t equals twice the principal.

That is tex2html_wrap_inline323 .

So the question is, what value of t (how long) makes tex2html_wrap_inline327 double tex2html_wrap_inline259 ?

The formula for continuous compounding states that tex2html_wrap_inline331 , so the question is now ``what value of t makes tex2html_wrap_inline335 ''?

Some simplifications (trying to get at t):

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So the doubling time is ln(2)/r and this does not depend on the principal tex2html_wrap_inline259 .

In particular for r equal to 4% or 0.04 we get ln(2)/0.04 = 17.329.

Always check the answers: Say tex2html_wrap_inline259 is 1000.

Then

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So, it has indeed doubled (up to rounding error).

Next example:

A invests $1000 at 5% per annum continuously compounded.
B invests $200 at 20% per annum continuously compounded.

Questions? Does B ever catch up? How long does it take?

B catches up if the difference between them becomes zero.

Alternatively if the ratio of their amounts becomes 1.

Equality can be expressed as a difference of zero or as a ratio of one.

Draw a picture using a graphing package .

When does it happen: either approximate from the graph or work out explicitly once and for all.

A has at time t, tex2html_wrap_inline357 .

B has at time t, tex2html_wrap_inline361 .

The equality condition can be stated as:

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Solve this for t again.

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So it takes about 11 years for B to catch up.

Geometric series

Back to the discrete (as opposed to the continuous) case.

After t time intervals, the principal tex2html_wrap_inline259 becomes

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In some instances it is interesting to sum this series, that is

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we can make this look simpler by writing (1 + r) as say tex2html_wrap_inline375 . Then we have

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How to find out what tex2html_wrap_inline377 is?

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Always check this sort of formula with an example calculation:

Take tex2html_wrap_inline379 , tex2html_wrap_inline381 and t = 3.

Then

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The formula gives

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Language:

The series is: tex2html_wrap_inline385 .

The t-th term is tex2html_wrap_inline389 .

The sum is tex2html_wrap_inline391 .

Recall the formula for the sum of the first t+1 terms is

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What about the limit of this series as tex2html_wrap_inline395 ?

Answer is that it depends on the magnitude of tex2html_wrap_inline375 , converges for tex2html_wrap_inline399 .

Geometric series applications: various models as described in the exams. Provides a natural down-weighting, combine various quantities but giving different - higher weight to recent observations - exponential smoothing.

Second part of the class: Functions and straight lines.

Functions: what's the relationship between one variable and another?

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How does income depend on education?
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How does GNP depend on investment?
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How does sales depend on display feet?

Functions express relationships, understanding the relationship means understanding the function.

Three ways to express a functional relationship:

1. Tables.

2. Graphs.

3. Formulae - symbolically.

Example: linear feet of shelf space and sales.

Call linear feet ``x'' and sales ``y''.

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Graphically: depict a number pair by a point: (1,20),(2,40),(3,60),(4,80).

Draw the point on a graph. the values in the point pairs indicate how far the point is away from a set of axes (in this case 2-axes).

The horizontal axis is called the x-axis, and the vertical is the y axis.

The graph describes a visual description of the relationship.

Formulae Advantage, mathematical objects that can be manipulated according to a set of rules to provide more information/insight into the behavior of the relationship. Generically we write y = f(x). In this example we have tex2html_wrap_inline407 .

Straight lines.

The most simple relationship between two variables, and often the level we model at (even if we have to transform to get there, recall Cellular example).

What makes a straight line straight?

The slope of the line is constant.

Slope, the change in y divided by the change in x, tex2html_wrap_inline413 .

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Solve to get

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By definition this is true for any values of tex2html_wrap_inline415 and tex2html_wrap_inline417 . In particular tex2html_wrap_inline419 and just call tex2html_wrap_inline417 , x. Get as the equation:

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Terminology: c is the intercept (where the line crosses the y-axis), and m is the slope.

Example: call y the time in seconds to produce x widgets.

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Interpret the slope and intercept.

Intercept: the value of y when x equal zero (in English ...).

Slope, the change in y for every one unit change in x, (in English ...).

Matching up dimensions can provide interpretations.

Question type:

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Given a point and a slope, what's the equation of the line that goes through it?
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Interpreting inequalities expressed via straight lines.

Families of functions.

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Polynomials: tex2html_wrap_inline439 .
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Exponential, x is in the exponent: tex2html_wrap_inline441 .
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Logs: y = a ln(x) + b.
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Trigonometric: tex2html_wrap_inline445

Homework questions.

A set of quick questions to reinforce the days concepts. A calculator will be needed.



Richard Waterman
Tue Aug 4 00:12:40 EDT 1998