# Statistics 712

### Dr. Robert Stine

Announcements

The average overall score for the class (HW + Final + Class) was 80, with a standard deviation of about 8. The final and homework each received a 40% weight, with class participation making up the other 20%, as promised in the syllabus.

• Final:
The average score on the final exam was 71 with an SD of 11. The scores were roughly normally distributed, so can use these summary statistics to see where you stand. You can pick up your graded final from the filing cabinets outside of my office. A solution set is also available for the curious.

• Homework:
The average homework grade was 66 out of a max of 80, with a standard deviation of around 10. The range is 42 to 79. When computing the final class grade, I dropped the lowest and averaged the rest.

Most of the class hand-outs are available from this page as PDF files. You'll need to have the Adobe Acrobat viewer to read these documents; it's available all over the web.

Syllabus
A previous version of this was distributed in the first class. It gives the class schedule, grading requirements, and ways to contact me. Its been revised to fit what we have done so far (1/28).

Class lecture material
This material is a combination of pdf files of the class lecture notes, JMP data files, and occasional handouts.

1. Introduction
2. Confidence intervals and tests, review
3. Combining information sources
4. Combining multiple sources
5. Handling dependence
6. Handling bias
7. Multiplicity issues
8. More on multiplicity
9. Multiplicity in regression
10. Lecture 10 was done together with lecture 9.
11. Extrapolation with regression
12. Lecture 12 covers material from the prior notes.
13. Extrapolation with time series
14. Calibrated forecasts
15. Utility
16. Certainty equivalent value
17. Another approach to CEV
18. Risk in financial markets
19. Leverage and allocation methods
20. More complex examples with principal components
21. Introduction to hedging
22. Regression and hedging
23. Subjective confidence intervals
24. Pooling subjective intervals
25. Introduction to game theory; finish subjective intervals
26. More game theory
27. Auctions

Data sets from the casebook
You can get the data for the casebook examples either as a single zip file or as individual JMP files from this link.

Assignments and Exams
Each assignment is accompanied by one or more data files, in JMP format. Solutions are added after the due date.