**Announcements**

- Grades:

The average overall score for the class (HW + Final + Class) was 80, with a standard deviation of about 8. The final and homework each received a 40% weight, with class participation making up the other 20%, as promised in the syllabus. - Final:

The average score on the final exam was 71 with an SD of 11. The scores were roughly normally distributed, so can use these summary statistics to see where you stand. You can pick up your graded final from the filing cabinets outside of my office. A solution set is also available for the curious. - Homework:

The average homework grade was 66 out of a max of 80, with a standard deviation of around 10. The range is 42 to 79. When computing the final class grade, I dropped the lowest and averaged the rest.

Most of the class hand-outs are available from this page as PDF files. You'll need to have the Adobe Acrobat viewer to read these documents; it's available all over the web.

- Syllabus
- A previous version of this was distributed in the first class.
It gives the class schedule,
grading requirements, and ways to contact me. Its been revised
to fit what we have done so far (1/28).
- Class lecture material
- This material is a combination of pdf files of the class lecture notes,
JMP data files, and occasional handouts.
- Introduction
- Confidence intervals and tests, review
- Combining information sources
- Combining multiple sources
- Handling dependence
- Handling bias
- Multiplicity issues
- More on multiplicity
- Multiplicity in regression
- Lecture 10 was done together with lecture 9.
- Extrapolation with regression
- Lecture 12 covers material from the prior notes.
- Extrapolation with time series
- Calibrated forecasts
- Utility
- Certainty equivalent value
- Another approach to CEV
- Risk in financial markets
- Leverage and allocation methods
- More complex examples with principal components
- Introduction to hedging
- Regression and hedging
- Subjective confidence intervals
- Pooling subjective intervals
- Introduction to game theory; finish subjective intervals
- More game theory
- Auctions

- Data sets from the casebook
- You can get the data for the casebook examples either as a single zip file
or as individual JMP files from this
link.
- Assignments and Exams
- Each assignment is accompanied by one or more data files, in JMP
format. Solutions are added after the due date.
- Assignment 1

Solutions - Assignment 2

Solutions text and associated JMP data file

- Assignment 3
and needed car sales JMP data file

Solutions - Assignment 4 and a
new verion of the nineties JMP data file .
Further information about the economic variables used to define the
columns in this data are in this
text file.

Solutions - Assignment 5 and
New version of the cellular JMP data file

Solutions and associated simulation JMP data file - Assignment 6

Solutions for this assignment are included in the notes for Lecture 20. - Assignment 7 and the needed
JMP data file

Solutions - Assignment 8

Solutions - Final Exam and the associated
JMP data file

Solution set

- Assignment 1